You can download pdf of war scenario"Beginning Of the End" which I started writing in November 2010 and finished in June 2011 from www.jjamwal.in/dl/WarScenario.pdf
More details at my website here.
Showing posts with label War scenario. Show all posts
Showing posts with label War scenario. Show all posts
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
War Scenario. part XLVI
Previous Part
0650 Hours
PPC World News
In a somewhat expected event, a senior member of Chinese ruling party, Admiral (Retd) Zlin Xedong was suspended and placed under arrest on charges of misuse of his authority. It was declared in a statement issued by a senior spokesperson of CPC. According to statement, Chinese President was forced to issue orders to this affect after government's investigators uncovered solid proof of his involvement in a plot to spoil developing mutually beneficial relationships between China and India. In a well planned conspiracy that involved many senior and middle level officers of Pakistani military, Admiral Xedong plotted clandestine attack on India in complete violation of official Chinese policy of peaceful and prosperous co-existence. Involvement of some other senior Chinese PLA officers is also under investigation. Exact motive of conspirators is not clear at the moment,
After the investigative team intimated President Peng of it's findings, he immediately ordered Adm Xedong to be placed under arrest awaiting further trial while investigations against other officers get completed. According to many analysts, this step is probably aimed to mollify India smarting after a surprise nuke attack which it alleges was planned and financed by Chinese military. Just hours after a devastating retaliatory nuclear attack on it's arch enemy Pakistan, from where the rogue missile was launched, Indian Navy had captured a crippled Chinese submarine. Along with it's full crew, Indian Navy had also captured rebel Pakistani General Asgar. From him, they had recovered recorded conversations between Admiral Xedong and a low ranking Chinese liaison officer. According to the recordings, Admiral Xedong was heard planning more attacks on India. Chinese spokesperson while sympathizing with India expressed hope that the steps taken by China in it's mission to punish the miscreants will generate goodwill amongst Indians and world community. When asked by a reporter whether international agencies or India will be allowed to interrogate Admiral Xedong and his co-conspirators, the spokesperson declined to answer.
Responding to the statement, a senior official from Indian government praised the action taken by Chinese government as a positive one but also said that much needs to be done in order to punish the guilty. In an answer to a question regarding further role of Indian forces in Pak Occupied Kashmir, he said that the area is now formally under Indian control as another part of erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. Refuting the allegations of land grab, the spokesperson went on to say that part of J&K under Chinese control should be handed over back to India as it was ceded illegally by Pakistan to China. There has been no reaction from Chinese on this as yet.
Reactions from other countries have been mixed. Although most of them except for notable exception of Israel and Russia have condemned the overwhelming nuclear attack on Pakistan, all of them unilaterally urged Indian government to be more pragmatic with China. In a televised interview, General Secretary UN Behn Ki urged both India and China to tread cautiously while billions of lives are in grave danger. He also urged China to find a peaceful solution to ongoing civil unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang. Although Chinese government has imposed strict curbs on news related to these provinces, sources indicate that the situation is getting worse by the day with escalating violence from all all sides.
0720 Hours
India
“What do you think of it Angad ? “ DM asked NIA chief who seemed to be lost in deep thought. It took a few seconds for him to realize that DM was addressing him. He had been thinking about the new development and was just dying to let it out. After a bit of start he answered, “They are lying. I'll bet my last rupee that Xedong is just a straw man. It cannot be a lone wolf or rogue mission. Support of a lot of people, right up to their higher ranking CPC people is necessary to pull off anything like this. We are talking about Chinese nukes being launched by Chinese personnel . Now they arrest some random ass and make him a sacrificial goat. We are not sure that even he would be punished at all. ”
“And you base this upon ?” DM asked.
“ Base upon ? “ Angad exclaimed with wide open eyes and gestured with his hands. “ You saw all the proof yourself, right from the missile plant to it's transport to Pakistan. Then had the testimony of those captured Pakis and Chinese submarine crew. There is no chance that Xedong is the only mastermind behind all this. I'll eat my shoes if somebody proves me wrong. “
“But what's their motive then ? In spite of all their bravado and saber rattling previously, they haven't even expressed any official outrage over loss of 3 of their submarines and the men and missiles that we captured from Gilgit..” DM seemed puzzled and amused at the same time.
Angad allowed himself a wicked smile, “It was your decision to pay back the Pakis in kind that's led to the current situation. By firing the nuke from the shoulder of Pakis, they thought that they could humiliate us and tank our economy and self esteem. They thought that we'll be too afraid to retaliate and thus lose face, become weak and more prone to their bullying. Then they could strengthen their claim on occupied and disputed territories and prance around on world stage as the undisputed champion. But our retaliatory strikes poured cold water on all of their dreams. Capturing that Chinese submarine was our wildest dream come true. The intelligence that we gathered is invaluable.
They now know that we are privy to most of their plans and are more than willing to give them a bloody nose. They probably thought that in worst case scenario for them, we'll engage Pakis in a conventional war and they could come to the aid of their deeper than ocean fliends and make it hell for us. But we preempted their trump card with our own.”
General Zoravar Singh, who had been listening to the conversation quietly interrupted Angad, “All that's fine, but that still doesn't answer the question. What should be our response ?”
DM sopke up before Angad could answer, “What do you think General ? Can we take on Chinese right now ?”
General Singh glanced on his companions from Air Force and Navy before answering, “We've been preparing for such a situation for some time. Although we are not as strong and well equipped as we'd like, but still we can hold our ground as long as it takes. Our Navy has already given them a bloody nose in two sectors. Army and Air Force are already mobilized and just awaiting orders. Our SF are already operating inside Tibet. They'll take it a few notches up as soon as we give the signal.”
DM sighed, “Pitched battles with Chinese. I'm 100% sure that this thought will give another heart attack to our PM. “
Angad grinned and shrugged. DM glanced at him before continuing, “But realistically, what are our options ? China isn't going to be a push over like Pakistan. What can we hope to achieve in terms of a military or political victory over them. By victory, I don't mean any kind of lame brain “moral” thing. I want something that I can use to bargain something useful from them later. Aksai Chin, Tibet anything like that.”
General Singh replied, “I'll be honest with you sir. If Chinese attack us, we will give them a real beating that they will ever forget. It's not 1962.
In case we attack them, they'll put up as fierce resistance as well. I cannot guarantee any territorial gains that we can use as bargaining chips later on. “
DM observed, “Typical zero sum game , eh . What's your opinion about Chinese? Do they think in similar way ?”
“Based on whatever I know about Chinese, I'd say yes. Now that they realize that we've crossed nuclear threshold much earlier they expected, I believe that they'll think a lot before committing to a direct fight. At least that's what I could deduce from Chinese president's statement and their actions till now.” He finished the sentence glancing in Angad's direction who silently nodded in agreement. “
DM spoke with some anger “ Hmm. But that's not a satisfactory conclusion to this mess. We suffered a nuclear strike and the people who actually plotted it all will likely go scot free.”
Angad who seemed to be lost in his own world again replied, “As General said, we do have our men inside their territory. We can inflict considerable amount of pain on them and blame it all on non-state actors, much like their beloved Pakis.”
He paused for a moment as if lost in thought again, then resumed, “ Apart from all that, Lin said that he'll order his forces to stand down and strangely it's been like that only. Their formations are on high alert but there is absolutely no indication that they are mobilizing in a war like mode against us as yet. “
Navy chief spoke up, “That's not entirely correct. We downed one of there nuclear submarines just yesterday along with another that was taken down by Americans. Two other attack submarines are still there just outside our waters. We're tracking one but other is hiding somewhere.”
DM's ears perked up, “Yes, I've been wondering about this too. What do we make up of American involvement in this ? And what about that incident in Spartly Islands. Any further news on that ?”
“Well, except for TV clips from Malaysian channels, we don't have any information on that. Those Chinese personnel were found drifting hundreds of Kms from their base. From whatever we could make of it, it's 100% sure that it was a well planned spec-ops mission. Very few countries except can pull it off there. US of course is one.
As far as that submarine incident is concerned, we're not entirely sure of their motives even now. In my opinion, they were trying to play cop when Chinese submarine decided to act Paki forcing Americans to sink it. But as I said before, it's just an educated guess.”
DM nodded in approval,”Your guess is quite accurate. I had received a call from their Secretary Of Defence just a few minutes before this meeting started. He made an offer of mediating between us and Chinese just to stop the war before it turns worse.”
Suddenly perked up, Angad asked, “What did you say ?”
“Haven't promised anything yet. They also said two of their aircraft carrier groups are steaming full speed in to South China sea and Japan, Chinese also know this.”
Angad smiled, “I don't think that Chinese will swallow it so easily.”
DM looked him in the eye, “We're not going to let that attack go unpunished either.”
0650 Hours
PPC World News
In a somewhat expected event, a senior member of Chinese ruling party, Admiral (Retd) Zlin Xedong was suspended and placed under arrest on charges of misuse of his authority. It was declared in a statement issued by a senior spokesperson of CPC. According to statement, Chinese President was forced to issue orders to this affect after government's investigators uncovered solid proof of his involvement in a plot to spoil developing mutually beneficial relationships between China and India. In a well planned conspiracy that involved many senior and middle level officers of Pakistani military, Admiral Xedong plotted clandestine attack on India in complete violation of official Chinese policy of peaceful and prosperous co-existence. Involvement of some other senior Chinese PLA officers is also under investigation. Exact motive of conspirators is not clear at the moment,
After the investigative team intimated President Peng of it's findings, he immediately ordered Adm Xedong to be placed under arrest awaiting further trial while investigations against other officers get completed. According to many analysts, this step is probably aimed to mollify India smarting after a surprise nuke attack which it alleges was planned and financed by Chinese military. Just hours after a devastating retaliatory nuclear attack on it's arch enemy Pakistan, from where the rogue missile was launched, Indian Navy had captured a crippled Chinese submarine. Along with it's full crew, Indian Navy had also captured rebel Pakistani General Asgar. From him, they had recovered recorded conversations between Admiral Xedong and a low ranking Chinese liaison officer. According to the recordings, Admiral Xedong was heard planning more attacks on India. Chinese spokesperson while sympathizing with India expressed hope that the steps taken by China in it's mission to punish the miscreants will generate goodwill amongst Indians and world community. When asked by a reporter whether international agencies or India will be allowed to interrogate Admiral Xedong and his co-conspirators, the spokesperson declined to answer.
Responding to the statement, a senior official from Indian government praised the action taken by Chinese government as a positive one but also said that much needs to be done in order to punish the guilty. In an answer to a question regarding further role of Indian forces in Pak Occupied Kashmir, he said that the area is now formally under Indian control as another part of erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. Refuting the allegations of land grab, the spokesperson went on to say that part of J&K under Chinese control should be handed over back to India as it was ceded illegally by Pakistan to China. There has been no reaction from Chinese on this as yet.
Reactions from other countries have been mixed. Although most of them except for notable exception of Israel and Russia have condemned the overwhelming nuclear attack on Pakistan, all of them unilaterally urged Indian government to be more pragmatic with China. In a televised interview, General Secretary UN Behn Ki urged both India and China to tread cautiously while billions of lives are in grave danger. He also urged China to find a peaceful solution to ongoing civil unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang. Although Chinese government has imposed strict curbs on news related to these provinces, sources indicate that the situation is getting worse by the day with escalating violence from all all sides.
0720 Hours
India
“What do you think of it Angad ? “ DM asked NIA chief who seemed to be lost in deep thought. It took a few seconds for him to realize that DM was addressing him. He had been thinking about the new development and was just dying to let it out. After a bit of start he answered, “They are lying. I'll bet my last rupee that Xedong is just a straw man. It cannot be a lone wolf or rogue mission. Support of a lot of people, right up to their higher ranking CPC people is necessary to pull off anything like this. We are talking about Chinese nukes being launched by Chinese personnel . Now they arrest some random ass and make him a sacrificial goat. We are not sure that even he would be punished at all. ”
“And you base this upon ?” DM asked.
“ Base upon ? “ Angad exclaimed with wide open eyes and gestured with his hands. “ You saw all the proof yourself, right from the missile plant to it's transport to Pakistan. Then had the testimony of those captured Pakis and Chinese submarine crew. There is no chance that Xedong is the only mastermind behind all this. I'll eat my shoes if somebody proves me wrong. “
“But what's their motive then ? In spite of all their bravado and saber rattling previously, they haven't even expressed any official outrage over loss of 3 of their submarines and the men and missiles that we captured from Gilgit..” DM seemed puzzled and amused at the same time.
Angad allowed himself a wicked smile, “It was your decision to pay back the Pakis in kind that's led to the current situation. By firing the nuke from the shoulder of Pakis, they thought that they could humiliate us and tank our economy and self esteem. They thought that we'll be too afraid to retaliate and thus lose face, become weak and more prone to their bullying. Then they could strengthen their claim on occupied and disputed territories and prance around on world stage as the undisputed champion. But our retaliatory strikes poured cold water on all of their dreams. Capturing that Chinese submarine was our wildest dream come true. The intelligence that we gathered is invaluable.
They now know that we are privy to most of their plans and are more than willing to give them a bloody nose. They probably thought that in worst case scenario for them, we'll engage Pakis in a conventional war and they could come to the aid of their deeper than ocean fliends and make it hell for us. But we preempted their trump card with our own.”
General Zoravar Singh, who had been listening to the conversation quietly interrupted Angad, “All that's fine, but that still doesn't answer the question. What should be our response ?”
DM sopke up before Angad could answer, “What do you think General ? Can we take on Chinese right now ?”
General Singh glanced on his companions from Air Force and Navy before answering, “We've been preparing for such a situation for some time. Although we are not as strong and well equipped as we'd like, but still we can hold our ground as long as it takes. Our Navy has already given them a bloody nose in two sectors. Army and Air Force are already mobilized and just awaiting orders. Our SF are already operating inside Tibet. They'll take it a few notches up as soon as we give the signal.”
DM sighed, “Pitched battles with Chinese. I'm 100% sure that this thought will give another heart attack to our PM. “
Angad grinned and shrugged. DM glanced at him before continuing, “But realistically, what are our options ? China isn't going to be a push over like Pakistan. What can we hope to achieve in terms of a military or political victory over them. By victory, I don't mean any kind of lame brain “moral” thing. I want something that I can use to bargain something useful from them later. Aksai Chin, Tibet anything like that.”
General Singh replied, “I'll be honest with you sir. If Chinese attack us, we will give them a real beating that they will ever forget. It's not 1962.
In case we attack them, they'll put up as fierce resistance as well. I cannot guarantee any territorial gains that we can use as bargaining chips later on. “
DM observed, “Typical zero sum game , eh . What's your opinion about Chinese? Do they think in similar way ?”
“Based on whatever I know about Chinese, I'd say yes. Now that they realize that we've crossed nuclear threshold much earlier they expected, I believe that they'll think a lot before committing to a direct fight. At least that's what I could deduce from Chinese president's statement and their actions till now.” He finished the sentence glancing in Angad's direction who silently nodded in agreement. “
DM spoke with some anger “ Hmm. But that's not a satisfactory conclusion to this mess. We suffered a nuclear strike and the people who actually plotted it all will likely go scot free.”
Angad who seemed to be lost in his own world again replied, “As General said, we do have our men inside their territory. We can inflict considerable amount of pain on them and blame it all on non-state actors, much like their beloved Pakis.”
He paused for a moment as if lost in thought again, then resumed, “ Apart from all that, Lin said that he'll order his forces to stand down and strangely it's been like that only. Their formations are on high alert but there is absolutely no indication that they are mobilizing in a war like mode against us as yet. “
Navy chief spoke up, “That's not entirely correct. We downed one of there nuclear submarines just yesterday along with another that was taken down by Americans. Two other attack submarines are still there just outside our waters. We're tracking one but other is hiding somewhere.”
DM's ears perked up, “Yes, I've been wondering about this too. What do we make up of American involvement in this ? And what about that incident in Spartly Islands. Any further news on that ?”
“Well, except for TV clips from Malaysian channels, we don't have any information on that. Those Chinese personnel were found drifting hundreds of Kms from their base. From whatever we could make of it, it's 100% sure that it was a well planned spec-ops mission. Very few countries except can pull it off there. US of course is one.
As far as that submarine incident is concerned, we're not entirely sure of their motives even now. In my opinion, they were trying to play cop when Chinese submarine decided to act Paki forcing Americans to sink it. But as I said before, it's just an educated guess.”
DM nodded in approval,”Your guess is quite accurate. I had received a call from their Secretary Of Defence just a few minutes before this meeting started. He made an offer of mediating between us and Chinese just to stop the war before it turns worse.”
Suddenly perked up, Angad asked, “What did you say ?”
“Haven't promised anything yet. They also said two of their aircraft carrier groups are steaming full speed in to South China sea and Japan, Chinese also know this.”
Angad smiled, “I don't think that Chinese will swallow it so easily.”
DM looked him in the eye, “We're not going to let that attack go unpunished either.”
Monday, November 22, 2010
War Scenario
I've started writing a multi-front, multi-country war scenario . It's not too great. There will be some inaccuracies, sentences will be broken and language amateurish. 1st few posts are really awful but I hope things even out as I manage to get the hang of it. Here is the first post:
11:00 Hours
26 Oct 2012
National Stadium
Karachi, Pakistan
MMushtaq Naqvi, son of Pakistani President, Saqlain Naqvi was going to make his first public speech to mark his formal entry in to the troubled nation's political arena. His entry in to politics wassupposed to revive the sagging fortunes of his father and party PPP before national elections in 2013. PPP was in trouble from many fronts, most serious of them being their ongoing spat with powerful factions in Pakistani Army.
A popular saying among people interested in international affairs is, “ Every Country has Army, Pakistani Army has a country ”.
Naqvi was never a really popular President to begin with. He got the post for one reason only, his wife, former PM Samina Naqvi was assassinated while campaigning before elections in December 2007. One among countless conspiracy theories circulating in Pakistan suggested that the assassination was carried out on the orders of then in power military dictator and “President” General Inzamam. Most PPP supporters beleived in it and held deep resentment against Army. Adding to this mistrust was the fact that PPP was Sindhi dominated while Punjabis formed the bulk of Pakistani army. Most of the issues troubling Naqvi originated from this bitterness among two groups.
Major one was growing closeness of PML(N), a Punjabi dominated party led
by former PM Wasim Akhtar with powerful elements in army and it's shady intelligence agency ISI. Both resented PPP and it's hold on civilian government and had been working behind the scenes patiently to weaken what they saw as disproportionate influence of Sindhis in nation's political arena . PML(N) and army together had launched a vicious campaign against PPP by planting stories about ill-gotten wealth and debauchery of families of Zaradari and his PM Yaqub Raza in media and targeted killings of PPP cadre thinly disguised as terrorist attacks.
Brains behind this sustained campaign against Sindhi PPP was General Abdul Asgar. He was an ambitious and well-connected man who thought nothing of using people or ideologies for his personal gains. Right from the time he joined army, he had cultivated image of a pious muslim with hatred for anything western or what Pakistanis thought of as anti-Pakistan. But nobody, except him knew real General Asgar and his ambitions.
He quickly rose through ranks to command a senior post in Pakistani Strategic Missile Group (SMG). He was a casualty of Musharraf's half-hearted attempts of purging the military of radical Islamic elements after 9/11 and was transferred to a army unit in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir bordering China and India. After Musharraf's exit, he was promoted to rank of a General and given the command of army's garrison in Islamabad and then in Karachi.
Being a powerful army guy in Pakistan brings many benefits, money and political influence not being least of them and General Asgar was quick to make the most of it. Very soon, he was considered to be army chief in waiting as soon as General Beg stepped down. But Beg had other plans.
Even though he considered General Asgar favourably, he had no intention of giving up post of army chief anytime soon. During the last 18 months he had started to appease his paymasters in US with a fervour by providing vital intelligence against major anti-US militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Using his help, NATO forces had captured or killed a numerous most wanted terrorists in a short period. Although it increased his influence within US and correspondingly Pakistan, number of enemies among Islamist militants as well as sympathetic elements in defence forces and civilian population increased exponentially. Like General Prevez Musharraf before him, he too alleged numerous conspiracies and attempts of assassination directed against him to gain sympathy.
Using his influence amongst US officials he managed to get extension to his already prolonged tenure, the latest one being in April 2011 that extended his virtual rule on Pakistan by another 3 years. In this, he had no small help from US which was fully backing him up as their new "ally" in Pakistan .
It didn't go down with many people in Pakistan, least of all with General Asgar, who saw his chances of gaining absolute power in Pakistan rapidly diminishing. It was at this time, that general Asgar started looking for allies in political arena of Pakistan and he zeroed in on Wasim Akhtar. Akhtar, too despised Beg who was protege of his nemesis General Prevez Musharraf. Akhtar had never forgotten how Musharraf had launched Kargil misadventure, overthrown his civilian government and put him into exile, thereby striking a crippling blow on his political clout and career. Even though he had no trust in military, he was only too glad to forge a secret alliance with General Asgar who promised him chairs of PM and President in exchange for an indefinite tenure on post of army chief for himself.
Together, they had launched a vicious covert assault on PPP and the government it led. News stories were planted in local and international media exposing ill-gotten wealth, bribery and sex scandals of various ministers and army personnel loyal to Beg who were holding key positions in the regime. Many junior leaders and cadre of PPP and it's allies were assassinated in violent attacks which were conveniently blamed on Indian and Israeli intelligence agencies.
With just months to go into elections, effect of this onslaught on government and Beg's hold on it was tremendous. Nobody ever expected elections to be free and fair in Pakistan, but revelations of brazen corruption and immorality among ruling politicians and Beg faction of army caused the popularity of PPP and Beg plunge to an all time low. Adding to their woes were the ever increasing friction between cadre of PPP and Punjabi parties who clashed almost daily armed with automatic weapons and explosives. Punjabis having the support of General Asgar invariable had the upper hand in most of these battles. Combined with sectarian Shia-Sunni violence and frequent attacks by Talibani organisations, situation in Pakistan was truly dire
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